Forward Montana is releasing a new poll today showing significant momentum growing behind independent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar, while support for Democrat Alani Bankhead is notably slipping. The survey was conducted by Geoff Garin with Hart Research, widely considered one of the top Democratic pollsters in the nation.
“Montana’s youth movement is clear: they want a candidate who can actually compete and win in November. These numbers show Seth Bodnar is doing exactly that. Among voters under 35, Bodnar leads Kurt Alme 50% to 42%, while Alani Bankhead trails Alme 49% to 36% – that’s a 21-point difference that should be impossible for anyone serious about winning Montana to ignore,” said Alice Boyer, Forward Montana executive director. “In addition to the calls from hundreds of individual voters and organizations that represent Montanans across the state, we hope these numbers are a wake up call to Bankhead that it’s time for her to do what is needed to stop MAGA and step down.
Key Takeaways from the August 7, 2026 Forward Montana Hart Research Poll
- In a four-way race, support for Bankhead has dropped by 7 points since June, while support for Bodnar has increased by 5 points.
- The latest four-way numbers continue to favor Alme at 45%, followed by Bodnar with 30%, Bankhead with 15%, and Austin 6%.
- More Democrats now support Bodnar (56%) than support Bankhead (39%) in the multi-candidate field. Independent voters support Bodnar (37%) over both Alme (29%) and Bankhead (13%).
- In head-to-head races, Bodnar now runs even with Alme at 46% to 46%, while Bankhead trails Alme by a wide margin of 52% to 38%. These results represent a modest improvement for Bodnar since our June poll and significant backsliding for Bankhead, when she trailed Alme by 6 points rather than her current 14-point deficit.
- Bodnar leads Alme with independents 56% to 30%, while Bankhead trails Alme with independents 40% to 37%.
- Bankhead’s approval rating has dropped significantly since late June. Currently, only 17% of voters have a positive opinion of her, while 30% have a negative opinion. Compared to June, Bankhead’s positives have dropped by 8 points, while her negatives have grown by 5 points.
Montana Voters Trending Independent
According to a recent Montana Free Press poll, 42% of Montana voters identify themselves as independent, 39% identify as Republican and 19% identify themselves as Democratic. According to Gallup, a record 56% of Gen X Americans and 54% of Millennial Americans now identify as political independents. Gallup also reports that independents have outnumbered both major parties every year since 2012 across generations, underscoring a growing desire for leaders who can move beyond partisan gridlock.
ABOUT FORWARD MONTANA
We empower young people to speak up and take action to create a Montana where everyone can thrive.
Our Mission: We’re building political power with and for young Montanans. That means empowering everyday folks to get involved and make their voices heard — from registering to vote to running for office, and everything in between. Young people in Montana have big dreams for a better, more sustainable and inclusive future — and we deserve opportunities to make it happen. That’s what Forward Montana is all about.
